This Saturday state bragging rights will be up for grabs, when Florida travels to No. 22 Florida State. The Seminoles moved one step closer to playing in the ACC Championship game with their 30-16 win at Maryland, but will need the Terrapins to bounce back and beat NC State, or it will be the Wolfpack representing the Atlantic in the title game.
The Gators hopes for playing for the SEC title were crushed in an embarrassing 36-14 loss at home against South Carolina, but Florida bounced back last week to beat Appalachian State 48-10. Florida coach Urban Meyer has never lost to Florida State, as the Gators have rolled off six straight wins.
The oddsmakers don’t seem to think that trend will continue, as the current college football odds have the Seminoles favored by 2.5-points over the Gators at home.
Florida (7-4, 4-4 SEC)
The Gators offense has struggled to make big plays in big games this season, whether it be in the passing game or on the ground. The Gators offense exploded for 547 yards of total offense last week against Appalachian State, but the question is can they make those same plays against a pretty solid Florida State defense.
John Brantley completed 16 of 22 attempts for 222 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Backup Jordan Reed attempted just three passes, but completed two of them, including one that went for a touchdown. Reed did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for 71 yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries.
Chris Rainey led the Gators with 87 yards on six carries, but it was a complete team effort on the ground, as Florida had five different players rush for at least 37 yards.
The Seminoles come in ranked 17th in the country, allowing just 115 yards a game on the ground, and if the Gators can’t get the running game going, the offense seems to stall. Brantley has to step up and have a big game for the Gators, otherwise the Seminoles are just going to load the box and really make things tough on the offense.
Florida State (8-3, 6-2)
The Seminoles defense forced four turnovers in their last game against Maryland, but none was bigger than the interception by Nick Moody. With the Terrapins driving down 23-16, Moody picked off Danny O’Brien and returned it 96 yards to put the game out of reach.
The Seminoles only punt came on their very first possession of the game, but only managed two offensive touchdowns the entire game, and were forced to attempt five field goals, only making three. Quarterback Christian Ponder completed 16 of 26 passes for just 170 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Chris Thompson led the Seminoles with 95 yards on the ground, with 70 of them coming on a first quarter touchdown run.
I expect the Seminoles to look to attack Florida with their powerful running game, as the Gators have had some trouble stopping the ground game this season. In their last loss to South Carolina, the Gators gave up 239 yards rushing. Ponder is capable of throwing against this defense, but will have to be careful, as the Gators come in allowing just 168 yards a game through the air.
Looking at the Odds
I think this is the year that the Seminoles earn back those bragging rights and beat the Gators on their home field. I look for Florida State to at least control the Gators rushing attack, which is all you really need to do to keep their offense in check.
I believe Florida State will be able to really move the ball on the ground, and while this game figures to be close, I think you can count on the Seminoles winning by at least a field goal. My final score prediction is Florida State 24, Florida 20.
