Last year: 13-1, 8-0 SEC (beat Cincinnati in Sugar Bowl)
2010 projected record: 10-2, 6-2 SEC
Why we know we're right: Of course it's asking too much for new QB John Brantley to replace Tim Tebow. But maybe even more daunting: the back-to-back 13-win seasons Tebow spearheaded. Brantley still hasn't played in critical situations, still hasn't played on the road in SEC games when facing adversity and still hasn't had to respond to defenses adjusting weekly and game-planning his tendencies. "Just when you think you've got it all figured out in this league," said Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt, "the other guy zigs when you think he's going to zag, and you're in a world of trouble. We all go through it." With Brantley and all the talent around him, Florida has enough to win the SEC East Division and play Alabama again in the in the SEC championship game. A few other factors—leadership, impact of the nation's No.1 freshman class—will determine if the Gators reach 13 wins again.
Why we might be wrong: When you're loaded with talent, intangibles become critical. At the top of the list for Florida: leadership. Tebow, Brandon Spikes and Jermaine Cunningham are all gone, and the task of steering—and at times, policing—a young and talented group (more than half the players on the roster are freshmen or sophomores) falls on guys who may not be ready or able to lead. There already has been a brush-up in fall camp, when heralded freshmen DLs Ronald Powell and Dominique Easley apparently took offense to senior C Mike Pouncey's declaration that the freshmen "shut up and play."
Our confidence level in this pick: Iffy. The Gators have enough talent to beat any team on the schedule, but there are too many questions that could swing the season either way. Florida is just about a lock to reach the SEC championship game for the third straight year, and the possibility of more depends on two critical areas on the defense: Can one or two ends create pressure (maybe even Powell), and does redshirt freshman MLB (and former mega recruit) Jelani Jenkins make an impact and continue the stout play of the past from the position (Spikes, Brandon Siler, Channing Crowder)?
Judgment day: Oct. 2 at Alabama. The first of what will likely be two games between the teams this fall. The last time Florida traveled to Tuscaloosa in 2005, the Tide handed Florida coach Urban Meyer the worst beating (31-3) of his career. Then came last year's loss to the Tide (32-13) in the SEC championship game. The Gators will be motivated, but it's asking a lot to expect Brantley—and other young players—to play at a high level in such at tough environment.
Coach's job security: Strong. So far so good with Meyer's comeback from health issues that finally caught up to him at the end of last season. In five seasons in Gainesville, Meyer has done (and won) more than anyone could've imagined. He'll coach Florida until he decides to leave—and make a boatload of cash (and win a lot of games) in the process.
Grading the positions: QB (B+), RB (A-), WR/TE (B+), OL (A), DL (B+), LB (B+), DB (A-), ST (A).
